Real Estate Sentiment Index 2013 move better receive signs of economic recovery Amid concerns after the National Bank stopped relaxing LTV measures and measures to stimulate real estate, not incentivizing While the confidence index in the fourth quarter of 2022 slightly decreased due to concerns about rising interest rates.

Mr. Wichai Wiratkapan Acting Director of Real Estate Information Center The Government Housing Bank said that the confidence index of residential development business operators in Bangkok-perimeter in the overall picture for the next 6 months (Expectations Index) or in the first half of 2023 was equal to 60.5, an increase from the previous quarter. Which is at the level of 57.9 and the index is higher than the mean level of 50.0, reflecting that entrepreneurs have increased confidence in their positive outlook on the real estate situation.

But when considering the confidence in each aspect, it was found that Confidence has increased in investment, employment, operating costs. and opening of new projects and/or new phases An increase of between 2.4 and 4.9 units was likely a result of the overall economic recovery affected by the expansion of the tourism sector. which will receive important supporting factors from China's opening up from the 8th day Last Jan.

However, it was found that earnings and sales were "decreased" from the previous quarter by -2.1 and -3.0 units respectively. This may be due to the Bank of Thailand not renewing the relaxation of the LTV measure that ended on December 31, 2022, and the reduction of the ownership transfer fee from 2% to 1%, which was previously reduced to 0.01% during 2020-2021

When classifying entrepreneurs by company type, it was found that the Listed Companies group had a sentiment index in the next 6 months equal to 61.2, a slight decrease from the previous quarter, which was at 61.8, indicating that entrepreneurs still have confidence. Trust in the real estate business However, only the operating results and sales were significantly less than the previous quarter.

While entrepreneurs in the group of Non-listed Companies had an index of 59.3, an increase from the previous quarter, which was at 52.1, indicating that entrepreneurs in the group of Non-listed Companies began to have more confidence from positive factors. such things, especially confidence in performance, sales, investment, launching of new projects and/or new phases

Sentiment Index of Residential Development Business Entrepreneurs in Bangkok - Vicinity In the current situation (Current Situation Index), the overall picture of the 4th quarter of 2022 has an index of 51.5, a slight decrease compared to the previous quarter (QoQ) with an index of 51.8 and the same time last year (YoY) at has an index value of 52.0 but is still higher than the mean value of 50.0

However, the index of confidence dropped slightly this quarter. When considering the source of the decrease, it was found that Confidence in performance, sales, employment and launches of new projects and/or new phases. declined between -1.7 to -2.3 units, which may be a result of the upward trend in domestic interest rates.

In the fourth quarter of 2022, there was an increase in interest rates of the MPC in the near future, on September 28, 2022 and November 30, 2022.

While confidence in investment and operating costs increased from 1.8 and 4.4 units, respectively, reflecting that Residents of the residential development business in Bangkok and its vicinity remain confident in investing in residential development continuously in 2023.

When classifying sentiment by entrepreneur group, it was found that the confidence in the current situation of the Listed Companies in the fourth quarter of 2022 had an index of 55.2, lower than the previous quarter with an index of 58.0, which was a result of belief. Confident in performance, sales, employment and launching new projects and/or new phases. But still higher than the median level of 50.0, showing that the Listed Companies have confidence in the business in the current situation.

While the confidence of entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group has a confidence index of 46.0, an increase from the previous quarter, which was at 42.6 and is an increase in confidence in all aspects. Although it is still below the median level of 50.0, it shows that non-listed companies are still more concerned about this negative factor than Listed Companies, but they have begun to ease some concerns.

Source:https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/property/1048032

Date 16/1/2023