The Real Estate Information Center reveals that in the second half of the year, the real estate confidence index picks up to welcome the new government and plans to launch more projects. After confidence in the second quarter of 2023 A slight increase compared to the first quarter, reflecting less confidence among operators in terms of sales, operating results and new project launches.

Wichai Wiratkaphan, inspector of the Bank of Thailand and Acting Director of Real Estate Information Center open survey results "Confidence Index of Residential Development Businesses in Bangkok - Vicinity" in the overview of the second quarter of the year 2023, in the current situation has an index value of 47.5, a slight increase Compared to the first quarter of 2023 (QoQ) with an index of 46.7, but compared to the same period last year (YoY) with an index of 49.8, there is a decrease in confidence. and is still below the mean level of 50.0

But if considering each aspect, it was found that the confidence index was higher than the average at the 50 level, there were 2 aspects: investment at the level of 55.8 points, which was 3.3 points higher than the previous quarter; Work was at 53.3 points, slightly lower than the previous quarter at -3.2 points, showing that operators have continued to have confidence in these two areas since last year.

While the confidence level is lower than 50 points, or there is a lack of confidence, consisting of operating results at a level of 44.8 points for 2 consecutive quarters, sales and opening of new projects / or a new phase was at 46.0 and 47.7 points, slightly lower than 50 points and an increase from the previous quarter by 3.2 and 0.6 points. Very medium, but tends to increase from the previous quarter and has been increasing continuously since the second quarter of 2022, showing a better adaptation of entrepreneurs in this segment.

"Results from the confidence survey shows that Although in the second quarter of 2023, operators still have little confidence in sales, performance and new project launches and/or new phases as a result of various negative factors, especially the The MPC's policy rate hike was announced on May 31, 2023 at a rate of 0.25 percent per year from 1.75 percent to 2.00 percent per year, which is the third round of interest rate hikes in the past five years. The first month of 2023, but it was found that confidence in all 3 areas slightly improved. This is likely to be a reason to support the level of confidence of entrepreneurs. In terms of investment and employment, in addition, rising interest rates is a major negative factor that affects entrepreneurs' confidence. in terms of operating costs that still has the lowest index value compared to other aspects.”

Wichai added that When classifying confidence by entrepreneur group, it was found that the confidence in the current situation of entrepreneurs in the Listed Companies group or companies listed in the stock market in the second quarter of 2023 had an index value of 52.1, higher than the previous quarter with 50.0 index that equals the mean It shows that the Listed Companies entrepreneurs still have confidence in the business in the current situation. The confidence of the Listed Companies entrepreneurs in the aspects that are at the level of 50 points or more include performance, sales, investment, Hiring and launching of new projects and/or new phases The confidence in operating costs (inverse) is only at the level that is quite significantly lower than 50 points.

While entrepreneurs in the group of Non-listed Companies or non-listed companies in the second quarter of 2023 had a confidence index of 40.6, a decrease from the previous quarter, which was at 41.9 and still lower than the average level of 50.0. Since 2022, it shows that non-listed companies are more concerned about these negative factors than Listed Companies. level 50 points or more

  For the confidence index of residential developers in Bangkok - its vicinity in the overall picture for the next 6 months Expectations Index was 62.1, a slight increase from the previous quarter. which is at the level of 61.4 and the index is higher than the mean level of 50.0 reflecting that entrepreneurs Confidence in a positive outlook on the real estate business situation in the next 6 months has increased. with an increase in almost every aspect except investment slightly reduced but still at a level above the mean value While the operating costs (inverse) slightly decreased. implies costs are still rising slightly.

An increase in overall sentiment over the next six months is likely to be driven by optimism from the formation of the new government. It is expected that there will be policies and measures to stimulate the overall economic recovery. Including the government has issued various measures to help the real estate business more.

when classifying entrepreneurs By type of company, it was found that the Listed Companies group had a sentiment index in the next 6 months equal to 69.1 from the previous quarter, which was at the level of 67.1, indicating that the Listed Companies group has increased confidence in the real estate business. more which increased from the previous quarter in almost every aspect In particular, the opening of new projects and/or new phases increased by 8.8 points from the previous quarter. Except for the (inverse) operating cost sentiment, only it is at a lower level and is considerably below the 50-point median.

While entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group had an index of 51.6, a decrease from the quarter. Previously at the level of 52.9, it shows that entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group have decreased confidence. In particular, confidence in sales, investment, employment, but in terms of operating costs (inverse) and new project launches and/or new phases have increased confidence. Only employment and operating costs (inverse) remain below 50 points.

Source:https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/property/1079702

Date 21/07/2023