The EIC Economic and Business Research Center states that in 2024 real estate will face 5 pressure factors: recovery of purchasing power; And has also entered the mode of rising real estate prices! From the driving force of 'costs' soaring all over the board. But at the same time, many people see it as an 'opportunity' to expand the provincial market and the new government's stimulus measures.

Chetthawat Songprasert, analyst at the Economic and Business Research Center (Economic Intelligence Center: EIC), Siam Commercial Bank Public Company Limited (SCB), stated that the real estate market trend this year and 2024 will begin to recover gradually. The main supporting factor is the economic recovery. This year, the GDP figure is likely to grow higher than the previous year, and in 2024 it is believed that it will still grow. causing purchasing power in the country to recover and also received support from purchasing power from foreign countries returning

As for the "pressure" factor, it comes from 3 main factors: household debt situation High costs, interest rates, although currently not very high compared to pre-Covid times But if compared to the Covid period, it is at a higher level. Important "barriers" to accessing credit Especially the group with middle-low purchasing power which is the main customer base.

At the same time, “cost” puts pressure on entrepreneurs. This comes from construction materials, land prices, and labor costs that are likely to increase according to the new government policy. As a result, next year's housing price index will be on the upward trend! Because there is still a trend of continuing to increase according to construction costs. In particular, land prices have increased following land appraisals and new city plans. As a result, entrepreneurs will turn to opening more middle- and upper-middle-class projects following the recovery of purchasing power.

There are also 5 important issues that need to be closely watched. The first issue is the recovery of purchasing power. which has economic factors pressuring Household debt and informal debt This puts pressure on purchasing power, especially in the middle-low level group. and the policy interest rate, which EIC expects to increase by another 0.25% to 2.5% and will remain at this level at least until the end of 2024.

The second issue is the high cost, although at present the price of steel is decreasing. But it is still at a high level. Meanwhile, cement is likely to continue increasing until next year.

The third issue is “Opportunity” in the provincial market. which many entrepreneurs Interested in doing more marketing? As the market in Bangkok becomes more crowded, competition becomes more intense. But other provinces still have a lot of support areas. Not only in tourist cities but also includes secondary provinces From the government investment structure in the transportation system through quite a few secondary cities, for example, in the northeastern region there is Udon Thani, Ubon Ratchathani, or in the southern region there is Chumphon, Surat Thani, Songkhla which are interesting. Other parts such as Phitsanulok, Nakhon Sawan, Kanchanaburi.

However, the results from EIC's survey found that the need to purchase for retirement is at the top of the list. Or buy as a second home, such as Kanchanaburi, Chiang Rai or Korat, higher than Hua Hin or Phuket. It can be observed that entrepreneurs have started to develop projects.

Fourth point How much will the new government's stimulus measures be? During Covid, the issuance of stimulus measures has helped people make purchasing decisions quite a lot. Especially measures to reduce transfer fees. and reduce mortgage fees for houses, townhomes, and condos by 0.01%, helping to "support" the market from going negative. In terms of transfers, it can be greatly reduced. Until the end of this year, it was reduced to only 1%. In the future, may the price ceiling be expanded from more than 3 million baht to 5 million baht or not?

And the fifth point New Bangkok city plan That will be announced in 2025 will support the expansion of the city, especially the middle class and suburbs. Especially along the new electric train lines. under construction and gradually build in the next phase, increasing the opportunity to develop more real estate projects, such as the Tao Poon, Rat Burana area that is currently under construction. It will stimulate the expansion of the west. which has developed quite a lot It stimulates development in the middle class area. Suburbs in the next phase

Source:https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/property/1089786

Date 22/09/2023