The confidence index of real estate entrepreneurs in Bangkok - metropolitan area in the 4th quarter of 2023 dropped below the median in terms of low performance for 5 consecutive quarters. Sales were at a level of 45.1 amid fluctuating operating costs. Overall, for the next 6 months, confidence levels will increase.

Real Estate Information Center The Government Housing Bank or REIC reports the confidence index of housing development business operators in Bangkok - the surrounding area. In the current situation, the overall picture of the 4th quarter of 2023 has an index value of 47.6, a decrease.

Compared to the third quarter of 2023 (QoQ) with an index value equal to 49.7, the level of confidence is lower than the median level of 50.0, which is decreased when compared to the same period last year (YoY) with an index value. Equal to 51.5, reflecting that entrepreneurs have decreased confidence and are still concerned about the current business situation.

  Areas with a level of confidence lower than 50.0 or a lack of confidence and concern include operating results at the level of 41.8, lower than the level of 50.0 for 5 consecutive quarters, sales at the level of 45.1, and costs. Operations (inverse) was at the level of 41.5, which was lower than the level of 50.0, but it was found that in the investment and employment areas it was at the level of 50.7 and in the area of opening new projects and/or new phases. which is at the level of 55.5

  Wichai Wiratkaphan, Government Housing Bank Inspector and Acting Director of the Real Estate Information Center revealed that the results of the confidence survey It shows that in the 4th quarter of 2023, entrepreneurs There is still decreased confidence and a negative view of the business situation throughout 2023. It was found that there was a level of confidence lower than 50.0 continuously from the 1st quarter to the 4th quarter of 2023, which is a result of factors various negative factors, especially the MPC's policy interest rate increase which has been raised since the beginning of 2023 at the level of 1.25 percent to 2.50 percent in the 4th quarter of 2023.

But it has been noticed that Confidence increased from the previous quarter in only two areas that showed a slight improvement. In terms of sales and investment In terms of investment, it has adjusted from the level of 49.7 to the level of 50.7, but in terms of sales, it is still at a level lower than the level of 50.0 for 4 consecutive quarters from the 1st quarter to the 4th quarter of 2023.

When classifying confidence by group of entrepreneurs, it was found that confidence in the current situation of listed companies in the 4th quarter of 2023 had an index value of 48.1, less than the previous quarter with an index value of 54.7 and lower than the value. The middle level is 50.0, indicating that listed companies are concerned about their business in the current situation. Especially in terms of operating results that decreased to 36.4 from the previous quarter's level of 56.8 and in the area of new project openings. and/or new phases decreased to 56.3 from the previous quarter's level of 65.4.

  Meanwhile, entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group in the 4th quarter of 2023 had a confidence index value of 46.8, increasing from the previous quarter which was at 42.3, which is still lower than the median level of 50.0.

It shows that small entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group still have the same concerns about negative factors as the Listed Companies group. The confidence of Non-listed Companies entrepreneurs that has clearly increased is in terms of results. Business increased to a level of 50.0

As for the confidence index of residential development business operators in Bangkok - metropolitan area overall for the next 6 months, it is at the level of 60.0, slightly decreased from the previous quarter which was at the level of 60.1, which still has an index value. Higher than the median level of 50.0

It reflects that entrepreneurs still have confidence in a positive outlook on the real estate business situation in the next 6 months. If considered in each aspect, it is found that Areas with higher levels of confidence than the previous quarter

It consists of the investment side increasing to 66.6 or an increase of 0.9 points and the operating costs (inverse) increasing to 37.4 or an increase of 3.0 points. The side with the same level of confidence is the operating results side. That was at the level of 65.0. The areas with lower confidence levels consisted of sales falling to the level of 68.4 or a decrease of -1.1 points, employment falling to the level of 56.1 or a decrease of -0.7 points, and the launch of new projects. and/or the new phase decreased to the level of 66.6 or decreased by -2.9 points.

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When classifying groups of entrepreneurs By type of company, it was found that the Listed Companies group had a confidence index value for the next 6 months equal to 63.1, decreasing from the previous quarter which was at 64.7, showing that entrepreneurs

Listed Companies group has slightly decreased confidence in the real estate business. If considered in each aspect, it is found that The areas with higher levels of confidence than the previous quarter were: The operating costs (inverse) increased to the level of 41.7 or an increase of 5.2 points. The areas with a decreased level of confidence include: the operating results decreased to the level of 68.2 or decreased by -2.6 points; the sales side decreased to the level 70.8 or a decrease of -4.2 points. Employment decreased to a level of 56.3 or a decrease of -3.3 points and the launch of new projects and/or new phases decreased to a level of 70.8 or a decrease of -4.2 points.

Meanwhile, entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group had an index value of 55.4, increasing from the previous quarter which was at 53.3, indicating that entrepreneurs in the Non-listed Companies group had slightly increased confidence. If considered in each aspect, it is found that Areas with higher levels of confidence than the previous quarter

Consisting of the turnover side increasing to the level of 60.3 or an increase of 4.0 points, the sales side increasing to the level of 64.7 or an increase of 3.4 points and the employment side increasing to the level of 55.9 or an increase of 3.4 points. The decrease consisted of operating costs (inversely) decreasing to the level of 30.9 or decreasing by -0.4 points and the launch of new projects and/or new phases decreasing to the level of 60.3 or decreasing by -1.0 points.

Wichai further commented that Confidence in the overall picture for the next 6 months, which remains close to the level in the survey in the previous quarter, may be a result of confidence arising from positive factors from the extension of economic stimulus measures in the real estate sector until 31 Dec. 2024 that will reduce the real estate transfer registration fee from the original 2.0 percent to 1.0 percent and the real estate mortgage registration fee from the original 1.0 percent to 0.01 percent (only transfer and mortgage at the same time).

Another factor that is important is the purchasing power of a condominium unit. In particular, the purchasing power of condominiums from foreigners has returned from stimulating the economy through the tourism sector by providing free visas to Chinese tourists. and residents of Kazakhstan for a period of 5 months

Starting from September 2023 - February 2024 and adding free visas for India and Taiwan for a period of 7 months, starting from November 2023 - May 2024, which may result in a lot of interest in buying condominiums in Thailand. climb

Source:https://www.bangkokbiznews.com/property/1109187

at 19/1/2024

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